US Bombs Iran Context Brief

The United States' bombing of Iran comes as Iran is at a low point in its regional influence.

BLUF: On June 21, 2025, the United States reportedly bombed three key nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). This military escalation comes at a time when Iran’s military capabilities and thus ability to retaliate have been degraded, due to recent Israeli strikes on key Iranian military facilities and leadership.

Iran’s Regional Posture

• The Assad regime’s overthrow in Syria has weakened Iran’s regional influence. On December 8, 2024, Syria’s Assad regime collapsed as rebels seized power in Damascus, Syria.¹ Former President Bashar al-Assad, an Alawite Shia Muslim, and his regime had been Iran’s closest state ally, one which Iran had invested heavily in.² Moreover, Syria has been key to Iran’s ability to transport arms to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy militias in the region.

• Recent attacks on Iran and its proxies have further diminished the Islamic Republic’s regional influence and capabilities. These attacks include the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 in Tehran, Iran, and the September killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Lebanon. Israel has launched attacks against Iran within its own territory; it has also conducted additional attacks against Hezbollah, Syria, and other Iran-aligned entities.³ In June 2025, Israel took out several top leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).⁴

• Iran remains at odds with other countries in the region. Since the Ayatollah came to power in the wake of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran has had adversarial relations with most Arab states, chief among them being Saudi Arabia.⁵ These tense relations remain as the two regional powers fight each other in proxy wars in Yemen, where the Iranian-backed Houthis are on one side of the conflict, and elsewhere.⁶

US-Iran Relations

• President Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, a major military escalation, seems at odds with his stated goal of fostering peace in the Middle East and staying out of war.⁷ While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claims the US attack on three Iranian nuclear sites was not done with the goal of regime change, President Trump posted on social media suggesting he may not be opposed to regime change in Iran.

• The US escalated tensions with Iran by killing Qasem Soleimani, then the head of the IRGC’s Quds Force, in a drone strike in early January 2020. Although President Trump claims this attack, conducted during the first Trump administration, was intended to deter rather than provoke conflict, it seems likely Iran saw it as an act of aggression rather than restraint.⁸ Following this attack, Iran announced it would not limit its uranium enrichment as it had promised to do under the terms of the JCPOA, or the Iran Nuclear Deal, signed under the Obama administration.

• Since the fall of the Shah in 1979, the United States and Iran have been enemies.⁹ While there have been efforts to normalize US-Iran relations since 1979, such as during the Clinton administration, these diplomatic endeavors have not been very successful, at least not in the long term.

Analysis

• US strikes on nuclear facilities increase uncertainty and security risks. Iran may retaliate by launching attacks against US assets and personnel in the region. Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, which would impact the flow of oil around the world, most likely meaning increasing the price of oil. Iran and Israel have also continued launching air strikes at one another.

• It seems quite possible that some political actors within the GOP may be willing to weaponize intelligence as happened under George W. Bush. When the US invaded Iraq in 2003, it did so based on the Bush administration’s claim that it had intelligence proving that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).¹⁰ The problem with the Bush White House’s intel was not that it was fabricated as some may believe; it was that it was outdated. Moreover, some on Bush’s political team seem to have pressured the intelligence community (IC) to come up with evidence to justify war with Iraq, thereby potentially biasing their work, or at least the focus of their work.

• It seems unlikely that Democrats in Congress, let alone outside of Congress, can stop a war with Iran. That is, unless they enact a public pressure campaign or something to that effect. This is because, in recent decades, the United States has gone to war without the president’s seeking an official declaration from Congress on a number of occasions.¹¹

• It is unclear what a US-Iran war would look like and whether a war requiring US troop deployment is likely. Given that these strikes were not the first major military escalation the US conducted and took ownership for under President Trump and given Iran’s reduced capacity to conduct a war, it seems quite possible no war will take place, beyond the acts of war already pursued. If Iran was to retaliate, it seems likely that would be against Israel sooner than the United States.

Obligatory Disclaimer: all views expressed here are my own personal views and do not represent the views of my employer nor those of the U.S. government.

Let us all hope and pray for peace.

Thank you for reading!

Footnotes

Audio with footnotes:

1. Upon his ousting, now-former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow, Russia, where they were granted asylum according to Reuters. Not only does this shift in political power threaten Iran’s influence in the country and region more broadly, but it also poses a threat to Russia’s regional influence, as Putin’s government had enjoyed good relations with the Assad regime. Also of note, Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence (DNI), has faced scrutiny for her approach to the Syrian Civil War, including a secret meeting she had with Bashar al-Assad according to the AP.

2. Although the Alawites are a religious minority in Syria, comprising approximately 10% of the country, they were empowered during the reign of the Assad regime, which lasted from 1970-2024 under Hafez al-Assad and then his son, Bashar al-Assad.

3. The attack on Hamas’ leader was a particularly embarrassing blow to the Iranians given that the attack occurred in their capital city. Presumably, Israel has done this with the assistance of the United States, though that is not entirely known.

4. The IRGC, which is a powerful branch of Iran’s military, was a major target in these attacks, which consisted of a series of decapitation strikes whereby Israel aimed to and succeeded in taking out several leaders in Iran’s military and several of Iran’s nuclear scientists according to the BBC.

5. There has been a decades-long cold war in the Middle East between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are two of the most powerful states in the region. In the past decade or so, regional dynamics have shifted due to factors including the Arab Spring uprisings and ensuing instability; the furthering of normalization in relations between Israel and a few Arab states through processes like the Abraham Accords; and a more aggressive military posture from Israel in the broader region in places like Syria, Lebanon, and elsewhere.

Interestingly, in light of these changing dynamics, some analysts suggest that the three non-Arab Middle East states of Iran, Israel, and Turkey have become regional hegemons. I would add to this analysis that worsening relations between the US and Saudi Arabia during the Biden administration, due to Biden’s criticisms of the Saudis particularly regarding the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, has likely decreased Saudi influence in the region. Side note: While Biden implicated MBS in Khashoggi’s murder, he didn’t seem to actually hold the Saudi leader to account though.

6. Given that Iran’s foreign policy goals include a paradigm shift in the political order of the region, it seems unlikely the Islamic Republic’s ties to other state actors in the Middle East will improve too much.

7. According to Donald Trump, he wants his legacy to be that he was a peacemaker. His actions, and plenty of his words, suggest otherwise.

8. especially given that it occurred in the Baghdad airport in Iraq.

9. Before the 1979 Revolution in Iran, US foreign policy in the Middle East was largely defined by the Cold War-era Twin Pillar policy, where the US saw Saudi Arabia and Iran as two vital pillars of American influence and involvement in the region.

10. Notably, when the US invaded Iraq, it toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime that was in power at the time. Not only did this action enable Iran to gain substantial influence in Iraq, a Shia-majority country, but it also created a power vacuum that allowed ISIS to rise in the country.

11. [note to self: need to fact check this] The last was the US Congress formally declared was WWII, which ended 80 years ago. Since then, the US has entered the Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Iraq War, and Afghanistan War without official Congressional declaration as dictated in the US Constitution. While Americans can be understandably angry about this, the bigger point— in the age of the Imperial Presidency— is that we need to reform our branches of government so that Congress has more power.